PANDEMIC THOUGHTS – pART 1

This morning, I read an article where the author, Dr. Joseph Mercola, made the statement, “Pandemic lethality has been oversold across the globe, as total mortality for 2020 has not spiked above norms.

He had also made a similar statement earlier, and I wondered exactly how true it was.

By the way, that article can be found here, and I would encourage you to read that article and subscribe to his site, as it seems his is one of the only sites that is not being censored by the politicized media, big tech, and government agencies promoting a COVID-19 narrative. He provides some excellent and well-researched and referenced health information. You will need to register for the site so you can read the articles, but my experience (nearly 4 years now) has been that they DO NOT sell your email address to anyone else, and they only send you notices of new posts, from which you can easily unsubscribe if you wish. On the other hand, the writer does have two characteristics that make the site less than totally appealing to me – first, he tends to use quite a bit of medical and biochemical jargon, occasionally failing to explain it (have you any clue what “modulate gene expression” means?); and second, he also tends to be a bit hair-on-fire about his conviction that there is a grand conspiracy taking place to take over the world and divest us all of our freedoms. Granted, he makes excellent points, and has some convincing supporting information for his conclusions, but his somewhat hysterical way of presenting this information makes him sometimes sound like “just another nut out there” instead of the solidly-grounded scientist he is. I wish he could be more dispassionate about what he presents, so more people would take him seriously.  But on to the statement in today’s article.

When I first read the claim that COVID-19 reporting was vastly overblown and misreported for political reasons, I was curious. They said that IF COVID were truly a deadly disease we should see a spike in the overall death rates from all causes, and there wasn’t any such spike. They claimed that because there was no noticeable spike in the death rates, then all these deaths being reported as COVID deaths were actually nothing more than normal deaths.

If they truly were COVID deaths, then we had witnessed a miraculous reduction in death rates from all other causes, such as cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease, dementia, cancer, etc.

That made a lot of sense to me. That is, it would make sense if the claim of “no spike in the overall death rate” were true.

So I decided to find out for myself. I did this last month, in January 2020.

Since I live in the state of Mississippi, I searched online for “Death Rates in Mississippi,” and found the state’s Bureau of Vital Statistics website. Excellent!

On that website, I found the state’s death rates from 1913 through the present, a total of 107 years.

I found documents listing the annual all-cause death rate for the state for 1913 through 2019, and I found the monthly death rate for each month in 2020 from January through November.

I put all these numbers into a spreadsheet, and I extrapolated the number for 2020 by adding up the numbers for the first 11 months, dividing by 11 to get an average monthly rate, then multiplying that number by 12 to get the annual rate.

So my number for 2020 is not an “official” number, and is not exactly accurate, but I believe it’s very close.

Here are the numbers I came up with for this 107-year span. After the numbers I’ll show you the graph they make:

Grid of Death Rates in MS, 1913-2020

And this is a chart of those numbers in the grid above, arranged so you can see how they change year to year:

As you can see from the title at the top of the chart, these numbers reflect deaths from ALL CAUSES in Mississippi, from 1913 through 2020.

 By the way, I checked the website for the Bureau of Vital Statistics again today, Feb 11, 2021, and the final numbers for 2020 were still not posted.

You can see there is a spike in 1918, which we can logically assume happened because of the Spanish Flu epidemic that year, and there was some upset in the curve during the years of the Great Depression. But from the years 1941 (beginning of World War II) up through 2019, the curve is remarkably smooth and constant. Right up until 2020.

For the entire 106-year period from 1913 through 2019, including the years of the Spanish Flu, World Wars, I and II, and the Great Depression, the average increase in death rate in Mississippi comes to just over a 110-death increase per year, year after year.

We do not know how much the overall population of the state increased over this period, but it should be safe to assume the population increased each year as well.

From looking at these numbers, we can see that if 2020 had seen “no increase in mortality due to COVID-19” then the death rate for 2020 should have been about 110 more than it was in 2019. Instead, the death rate was 5,823 more in 2020 than it was in 2019, or about 5,713 more than we should have expected.

Bear in mind that these were deaths from ALL CAUSES, but from these numbers, it would seem logical to infer that COVID-19 was a significant factor in these numbers.

I don’t know about other states or countries, but Mississippi has definitely and verifiably seen a spike in mortality from all causes in 2020.

You are welcome, of course, to draw your own conclusions. You are also welcome to look up these numbers yourself. They’re out there, available to anyone on the internet.

Finally, I would absolutely LOVE to see similar numbers for other states in the USA, and for other countries around the world.

Please let me know (leave a comment below) what you find in your state or country.

Discussion of Citizenship and Daily Life